Can the Blades pull off The Great Scape?

(Twitter / @SheffieldUnited)

After a shock result against Manchester United at Old Trafford, Sheffield United showed they’re not going down without a fight. But they couldn’t possibly pull off The Great Scape. Right?

Right???

Well, it surely looks like climbing the Mount Everest right now. Chris Wilder’s men sit at a mere 8 points after 20 games but there is a way! It’ll only take a huge upturn in form, but not as large as many may think.

I’ve made a quick research regarding the 17th placed campaigns in the last six Premier League editions and here’s what we have:

• 19–20 — Aston Villa: 9W, 21L, 35pts, 20pts after 20 games
• 18–19 — Brighton: 9W, 20L, 36pts, 25pts after 20 games
• 17–18 — Southampton: 7W, 17L, 36pts, 19pts after 20 games
• 16–17 — Watford: 11W, 20L, 40pts, 22pts after 20 games
• 15–16 — Sunderland: 9W, 17L, 39pts, 15pts after 20 games
• 14–15 — Aston Villa: 10W, 20L, 38pts, 22pts after 20 games

So, in the last six editions of the Premier League, the least amount of wins to stay in the division is 7. The max amount of defeats is 21. The least amount of points is 35. And only Sunderland was already inside the relegation zone after 20 matches and finished 17th, all others were in positions above.

The Blades’ current campaign reads: 2W, 16L and 8pts after 20 games.

Having lost 16 games already, the Blades have a maximum of 5 games they’re allowed to lose from now on. That in itself probably excludes the chance of a 7-win campaign being enough to stay in the league. A 9-win campaign, however, can give Sheffield United a fighting chance for a place in the top division next season.

Given both Newcastle (16th) and Brighton (17th) sit below the 20-point mark after 20 matches, 36 points *could* be enough to remain in the Premier League. A 7W-7D-4L run would add 28 points to SUFC’s total tally of 8 and give them those exact 36 points.

28 points in 18 games is a 1.55PPG pace, which is exactly what they achieved in their first 18 games last season. That team might not exist anymore but we saw glimpses of what made them so good last season in the win against Manchester United. They’ve done it before. It’s possible. Just very hard.

So, let’s list a couple of scenarios here, in case I got you lost somewhere. With 2 wins in their first 20 games, it is likely that Sheffield United needs:

• At least 7 wins in the next 18 matches to reach a 9-win campaign, that usually has been enough to stay in the Premier League.
• The magic number of defeats they still have ‘to spare’ would be 4, given that 5 defeats would mean they’d probably need a 10-win campaign.
• A 10-win campaign would mean 8 wins in the next 18, which would almost certainly guarantee them safety.
• A 7W-6D-5L run would result in 27 points, totalling 35 for the full campaign and likely not being enough — yet it might *just* be.

Now, let’s see where those wins and losses could be coming from:

Their last 18 matches are against: Manchester City, West Bromwich, Chelsea, West Ham, Fulham, Liverpool, Southampton, Leicester, Villa, Leeds, Arsenal, Wolves, Brighton, Tottenham, Palace, Everton, Newcastle and Burnley.

Let’s start by who they can possibly beat.

West Bromwich, Fulham and Brighton are relegation candidates aswell, so those are must wins. The same can be said about Newcastle, and they’ve already beaten them once this season, so that’s four hypothetical wins right there. We need to squeeze at least three more to give them a chance.

Burnley at home is a very good chance at a win. Leeds United can be hot ‘n cold, so that’s a chance.

Realistically, those are six fixtures they must win to pull this off. That leaves them one game they need to ‘steal’. Given, of course, they lose a maximum of four (or five) of the remaining games.

It’s hard to see anything but defeats against Manchester City and Liverpool but you never know. Chelsea is a ‘drawable’ game as things stand right now, at the time of writing. I can see a timeline where this team can give Arsenal a game, while I think Tottenham could just be too much for them. Out of the so-called ‘big six’ opponents, that’s three possible defeats. Not great.

The Spurs game is an interesting one because it’s at late April and god knows how Kane’s and Son’s legs are going to be after all the football they played this season, and how far Mourinho might have taken them into the Europa League.

That’s a tough schedule to squeeze anything out of, huh?

Let’s say they lose four and draw one. That still leaves Leicester, which is a tough nut to crack. In fact, they’re probably more likely right now to be a certified defeat than anyone out of Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal and Chelsea.

But in this worst case scenario, 5 defeats and a draw are still, only just, inside our goal.

That leaves Everton, Southampton, Villa, West Ham, Wolves and Crystal Palace in their schedule. The mission here is simple: Don’t lose and steal at least one win. That would complete their 7W-6D-5L run and place them with 35 points. That’s a very light number but in a season where every team is below par and their main competition have a lot of trouble gathering points, it might just do it.

If the Blades can pull this off, it would be one of the most spectacular comebacks in history, if not the greatest of all time. But it’s possible — at least in my dreams.